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Reggina U19 vs Ternana U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Reggina U19
Reggina U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ternana U19
Ternana U19
2/12/2022Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 16Centro Sportivo Sant'Agata 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Reggina U1941%
×Draw26%
Ternana U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggina U19
1.42
Ternana U19
1.25

Reggina U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 72 away

creates per match

Reggina U19
0.95
Ternana U19
0.94

allows per match

Reggina U19
1.56
Ternana U19
1.90

finishing

Reggina U19+0.00on par
Ternana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina U19 ↓

Ternana U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Reggina U19 or draw
67%
Reggina U19 or Ternana U19
74%
Draw or Ternana U19
59%

Winning margin

Reggina U19 wins by 2+
19%
Ternana U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Reggina U19 1+ goals
76%
Reggina U19 2+ goals
41%
Reggina U19 3+ goals
17%
Ternana U19 1+ goals
71%
Ternana U19 2+ goals
36%
Ternana U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reggina U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Ternana U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina U19 at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.56 · 39 matches

Ternana U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.90 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina U19 attack 0.95 + Ternana U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ternana U19 attack 0.94 + Reggina U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reggina U19 scores more
41%
level
26%
Ternana U19 scores more
33%

Reggina U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reggina U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reggina U19 vs Ternana U19

Reggina U19 beat Ternana U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Sant'Agata 1 in Reggio Calabria.