Reggina U19 0–5 Lecce U19: Result & Stats

Reggina U19

FT

0 – 5

Lecce U19

5/8/2021

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 19Centro Sportivo Sant'Agata 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Reggina U1926%

×Draw25%

Lecce U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reggina U19Expected goals in this matchLecce U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.56

Reggina U19

1.06

Lecce U19

1.56

Lecce U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 11 away

0.95

creates per match

1.55

1.56

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Reggina U19

0.95

Lecce U19

1.55

allows per match

Reggina U19

1.56

Lecce U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggina U19+0.00on par

Lecce U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina U19 ↓

Lecce U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Reggina U19 or draw

51%

Reggina U19 or Lecce U19

75%

Draw or Lecce U19

74%

Winning margin

Reggina U19 wins by 2+

10%

Lecce U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Reggina U19 1+ goals

65%

Reggina U19 2+ goals

29%

Reggina U19 3+ goals

9%

Lecce U19 1+ goals

79%

Lecce U19 2+ goals

46%

Lecce U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Reggina U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Lecce U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina U19 at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.56 · 39 matches

Lecce U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina U19 attack 0.95 + Lecce U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Lecce U19 attack 1.55 + Reggina U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Reggina U19 scores more

26%

level

25%

Lecce U19 scores more

49%

Lecce U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lecce U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff