Reggina U19 1–0 Imolese U19: Result & Stats

Reggina U19

FT

1 – 0

Imolese U19

2/4/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 17Centro Sportivo Sant'Agata 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Reggina U1938%

×Draw26%

Imolese U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reggina U19Expected goals in this matchImolese U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.31

Reggina U19

1.34

Imolese U19

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 15 away

0.95

creates per match

1.07

1.56

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Reggina U19

0.95

Imolese U19

1.07

allows per match

Reggina U19

1.56

Imolese U19

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggina U19+0.00on par

Imolese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggina U19 ↓

Imolese U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Reggina U19 or draw

64%

Reggina U19 or Imolese U19

74%

Draw or Imolese U19

62%

Winning margin

Reggina U19 wins by 2+

17%

Imolese U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Reggina U19 1+ goals

74%

Reggina U19 2+ goals

39%

Reggina U19 3+ goals

15%

Imolese U19 1+ goals

73%

Imolese U19 2+ goals

38%

Imolese U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Reggina U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Imolese U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggina U19 at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.56 · 39 matches

Imolese U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggina U19 attack 0.95 + Imolese U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.34

Imolese U19 attack 1.07 + Reggina U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reggina U19 scores more

38%

level

26%

Imolese U19 scores more

36%

Reggina U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reggina U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff