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Reggiana vs Lecco — Serie B 2018

Reggiana
Reggiana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lecco
Lecco
11/5/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 12MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Reggiana50%
×Draw25%
Lecco25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggiana
1.57
Lecco
1.04

Reggiana creates 51% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Reggiana
1.03
Lecco
0.84

allows per match

Reggiana
1.24
Lecco
2.11

finishing

Reggiana+0.00on par
Lecco+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Lecco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw
75%
Reggiana or Lecco
75%
Draw or Lecco
50%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+
26%
Lecco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals
79%
Reggiana 2+ goals
46%
Reggiana 3+ goals
21%
Lecco 1+ goals
65%
Lecco 2+ goals
28%
Lecco 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)
66%
Lecco (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

Lecco away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 1.03 + Lecco defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.57

Lecco attack 0.84 + Reggiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Reggiana scores more
50%
level
25%
Lecco scores more
25%

Reggiana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Reggiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reggiana vs Lecco

Reggiana and Lecco drew 1-1 in Serie B on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.