Reggiana 0–4 Lecce: Result & Stats | Serie B

Reggiana

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Lecce

M. Stępiński 82' (pen)

M. Coda 32', 16' (pen)

Ž. Majer 29'

3/7/2021

Serie B · Round 27MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Reggiana31%

×Draw27%

Lecce42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReggianaExpected goals in this matchLecce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.34

Reggiana

1.11

Lecce

1.34

Lecce creates 21% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 55 away

1.03

creates per match

1.45

1.24

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Reggiana

1.03

Lecce

1.45

allows per match

Reggiana

1.24

Lecce

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggiana+0.00on par

Lecce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Lecce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw

58%

Reggiana or Lecce

73%

Draw or Lecce

69%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+

12%

Lecce wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals

67%

Reggiana 2+ goals

30%

Reggiana 3+ goals

10%

Lecce 1+ goals

74%

Lecce 2+ goals

39%

Lecce 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)

42%

Lecce (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

Lecce away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 1.03 + Lecce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Lecce attack 1.45 + Reggiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Reggiana scores more

31%

level

27%

Lecce scores more

42%

Lecce at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Coda

Lecce · F

9.0

Match Events

16'

M. CodaPenalty

29'

Ž. Majer

32'

M. Coda↳ S. Pettinari

41'

Ivan Varone

42'

Karim Laribi

46'

G. Lunetta← L. Siligardi

47'

Arlind Ajeti

53'

Arlind Ajeti

53'

Arlind Ajeti

56'

S. Mazzocchi← I. Radrezza

57'

B. Gyamfi← M. Ardemagni

57'

M. Espeche← K. Laribi

66'

M. Stępiński← M. Coda

69'

Biagio Meccariello

71'

G. Yalçın← S. Pettinari

71'

L. Zuta← A. Gallo

77'

F. Pisacane← B. Meccariello

77'

B. Nikolov← J. Björkengren

79'

Salvatore Pezzella

80'

N. Kirwan← I. Varone

82'

M. StępińskiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReggianaLecce

Overview

42%Possession58%

5Total Shots20

1Corners4

16Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots20

0On Target8

3Off Target7

2Blocked5

1Inside Box15

4Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

392Total Passes514

329Accurate Passes458

84%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls12

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0