Reggiana 0–1 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Reggiana

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Empoli

Ryder Matos 11'

4/9/2021

Serie B · Round 33MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Reggiana35%

×Draw27%

Empoli38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReggianaExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.29

Reggiana

1.21

Empoli

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 61 away

1.03

creates per match

1.33

1.24

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Reggiana

1.03

Empoli

1.33

allows per match

Reggiana

1.24

Empoli

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggiana+0.00on par

Empoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw

62%

Reggiana or Empoli

73%

Draw or Empoli

65%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+

15%

Empoli wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals

70%

Reggiana 2+ goals

34%

Reggiana 3+ goals

12%

Empoli 1+ goals

72%

Empoli 2+ goals

37%

Empoli 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)

47%

Empoli (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 1.03 + Empoli defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Empoli attack 1.33 + Reggiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reggiana scores more

35%

level

27%

Empoli scores more

38%

Empoli at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Ryder Matos

Empoli · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

Ryder Matos

15'

I. Varone← L. Del Pinto

46'

S. Mazzocchi← L. Zamparo

51'

Nicolas Haas

54'

M. Ardemagni← S. Mazzocchi

73'

G. Crociata← Ryder Matos

73'

L. Mancuso← M. Olivieri

79'

S. Muratore← I. Radrezza

79'

K. Laribi← L. Libutti

87'

Szymon Żurkowski

88'

F. Bandinelli← S. Żurkowski

88'

S. Ricci← N. Haas

88'

89'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReggianaEmpoli

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots15

4Corners4

13Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target5

3Off Target4

2Blocked6

7Inside Box8

2Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

414Total Passes527

335Accurate Passes443

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

10Offsides0