Reggiana 1–2 Cremonese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Reggiana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cremonese

4/4/2025

Serie B · Round 32MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Reggiana33%

×Draw28%

Cremonese39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReggianaExpected goals in this matchCremonese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.23

Reggiana

1.11

Cremonese

1.23

Cremonese creates 11% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 117 away

1.03

creates per match

1.23

1.24

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Reggiana

1.03

Cremonese

1.23

allows per match

Reggiana

1.24

Cremonese

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggiana+0.00on par

Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Cremonese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw

61%

Reggiana or Cremonese

72%

Draw or Cremonese

67%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+

13%

Cremonese wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals

67%

Reggiana 2+ goals

30%

Reggiana 3+ goals

10%

Cremonese 1+ goals

71%

Cremonese 2+ goals

35%

Cremonese 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)

46%

Cremonese (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 1.03 + Cremonese defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Reggiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reggiana scores more

33%

level

28%

Cremonese scores more

39%

Cremonese at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff