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Reggiana vs Cosenza — Serie B 2018

Reggiana
Reggiana
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Cosenza
Cosenza
4/19/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 34MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Reggiana41%
×Draw28%
Cosenza31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggiana
1.29
Cosenza
1.07

Reggiana creates 21% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 134 away

creates per match

Reggiana
1.03
Cosenza
0.90

allows per match

Reggiana
1.24
Cosenza
1.54

finishing

Reggiana+0.00on par
Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw
69%
Reggiana or Cosenza
72%
Draw or Cosenza
59%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+
19%
Cosenza wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals
72%
Reggiana 2+ goals
37%
Reggiana 3+ goals
14%
Cosenza 1+ goals
66%
Cosenza 2+ goals
29%
Cosenza 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)
57%
Cosenza (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 1.03 + Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cosenza attack 0.90 + Reggiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reggiana scores more
41%
level
28%
Cosenza scores more
31%

Reggiana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reggiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reggiana vs Cosenza

Cosenza beat Reggiana 4-0 in Serie B on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.