Reggiana U19 3–1 Pordenone U19: Result & Stats

Reggiana U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pordenone U19

5/27/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Relegation Play-offs - FinalsStadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Reggiana U1948%

×Draw23%

Pordenone U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reggiana U19Expected goals in this matchPordenone U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.36

Reggiana U19

1.79

Pordenone U19

1.36

Reggiana U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 39 away

1.22

creates per match

1.18

1.55

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Reggiana U19

1.22

Pordenone U19

1.18

allows per match

Reggiana U19

1.55

Pordenone U19

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reggiana U19+0.00on par

Pordenone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana U19 ↓

Pordenone U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Reggiana U19 or draw

71%

Reggiana U19 or Pordenone U19

77%

Draw or Pordenone U19

52%

Winning margin

Reggiana U19 wins by 2+

26%

Pordenone U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Reggiana U19 1+ goals

83%

Reggiana U19 2+ goals

53%

Reggiana U19 3+ goals

26%

Pordenone U19 1+ goals

74%

Pordenone U19 2+ goals

39%

Pordenone U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Reggiana U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Pordenone U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

Pordenone U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana U19 attack 1.22 + Pordenone U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.79

Pordenone U19 attack 1.18 + Reggiana U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Reggiana U19 scores more

48%

level

23%

Pordenone U19 scores more

29%

Reggiana U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Reggiana U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff