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Reggiana U19 vs Cittadella U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Reggiana U19
Reggiana U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cittadella U19
Cittadella U19
2/15/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 19Campo Notari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Reggiana U1941%
×Draw24%
Cittadella U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggiana U19
1.61
Cittadella U19
1.46

Reggiana U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

creates per match

Reggiana U19
1.22
Cittadella U19
1.37

allows per match

Reggiana U19
1.55
Cittadella U19
2.01

finishing

Reggiana U19+0.00on par
Cittadella U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana U19 ↓

Cittadella U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Reggiana U19 or draw
65%
Reggiana U19 or Cittadella U19
76%
Draw or Cittadella U19
59%

Winning margin

Reggiana U19 wins by 2+
21%
Cittadella U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Reggiana U19 1+ goals
80%
Reggiana U19 2+ goals
48%
Reggiana U19 3+ goals
22%
Cittadella U19 1+ goals
77%
Cittadella U19 2+ goals
43%
Cittadella U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Reggiana U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Cittadella U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

Cittadella U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana U19 attack 1.22 + Cittadella U19 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.61

Cittadella U19 attack 1.37 + Reggiana U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reggiana U19 scores more
41%
level
24%
Cittadella U19 scores more
35%

Reggiana U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reggiana U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reggiana U19 vs Cittadella U19

Reggiana U19 beat Cittadella U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Notari in Montecchio Emilia.