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Machida Zelvia vs FC Gifu — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Gifu
FC Gifu
10/27/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 38Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Machida Zelvia50%
×Draw26%
FC Gifu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.53
FC Gifu
0.97

Machida Zelvia creates 58% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 43 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
FC Gifu
0.84

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
FC Gifu
1.74

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
FC Gifu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

FC Gifu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
76%
Machida Zelvia or FC Gifu
74%
Draw or FC Gifu
50%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
26%
FC Gifu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
78%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
45%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
20%
FC Gifu 1+ goals
62%
FC Gifu 2+ goals
25%
FC Gifu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
68%
FC Gifu (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

FC Gifu away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + FC Gifu defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.53

FC Gifu attack 0.84 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
50%
level
26%
FC Gifu scores more
24%

Machida Zelvia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Machida Zelvia 0–0 FC Gifu

Machida Zelvia and FC Gifu drew 0-0 in J2 League on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo).