Kitzbühel 3–1 Neumarkt: Result & Stats

Kitzbühel

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Neumarkt

F. Matondo 89'

C. Hetzenauer 56' (pen)

A. Lovrec 15'

T. Jonjić 21'

9/27/2014

Regionalliga - West · Round 11Sportplatz Kitzbühel-Langau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kitzbühel69%

×Draw18%

Neumarkt14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KitzbühelExpected goals in this matchNeumarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.00

Kitzbühel

2.44

Neumarkt

1.00

Kitzbühel creates 144% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 7 away

1.58

creates per match

0.86

1.14

allows per match

3.29

creates per match

Kitzbühel

1.58

Neumarkt

0.86

allows per match

Kitzbühel

1.14

Neumarkt

3.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kitzbühel+0.00on par

Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitzbühel ↓

Neumarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kitzbühel or draw

86%

Kitzbühel or Neumarkt

82%

Draw or Neumarkt

31%

Winning margin

Kitzbühel wins by 2+

46%

Neumarkt wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kitzbühel 1+ goals

91%

Kitzbühel 2+ goals

70%

Kitzbühel 3+ goals

43%

Neumarkt 1+ goals

63%

Neumarkt 2+ goals

26%

Neumarkt 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kitzbühel (draw refunded)

83%

Neumarkt (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitzbühel at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.14 · 50 matches

Neumarkt away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitzbühel attack 1.58 + Neumarkt defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.44

Neumarkt attack 0.86 + Kitzbühel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Kitzbühel scores more

69%

level

18%

Neumarkt scores more

14%

Kitzbühel at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kitzbühel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Lovrec

21'

T. Jonjić

56'

C. HetzenauerPenalty

67'

P. Urbanek← V. Höfler

74'

F. Matondo← L. Dzidziguri

83'

M. Gulyas← A. Hobel

88'

M. Lindner← S. Viertler

89'

F. Matondo

Kitzbühel

Neumarkt

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

74'▲F. Matondo←▼L. Dzidziguri

83'▲M. Gulyas←▼A. Hobel

88'▲M. Lindner←▼S. Viertler

Kitzbühel substitutes

MatondoGulyasLindnerPendlLechner

67'▲P. Urbanek←▼V. Höfler

Neumarkt substitutes

UrbanekStefvanovicStöllingerLagler