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Regar-TadAZ vs Parvoz — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
Preview
14:00
Parvoz
Parvoz
8/16/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 14
Big match
63%
Regar-TadAZ
model favours
63%22%15%

Regar-TadAZ have won 7 of the last 7 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Regar-TadAZ63%
×Draw22%
Parvoz15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Regar-TadAZ
1.88
Parvoz
0.78

Regar-TadAZ creates 141% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 32 away

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.50
Parvoz
0.59

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ
0.98
Parvoz
2.25

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par
Parvoz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

Parvoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw
85%
Regar-TadAZ or Parvoz
78%
Draw or Parvoz
37%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
38%
Parvoz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
85%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
56%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
29%
Parvoz 1+ goals
54%
Parvoz 2+ goals
18%
Parvoz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
81%
Parvoz (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.98 · 44 matches

Parvoz away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.50 + Parvoz defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Parvoz attack 0.59 + Regar-TadAZ defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more
63%
level
22%
Parvoz scores more
15%

Regar-TadAZ at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Regar-TadAZ
WWWDW
Parvoz
DLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regar-TadAZ vs Parvoz — Match Preview

Regar-TadAZ face Parvoz on August 16, 2026 in this Vysshaya Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.