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Regar-TadAZ vs Lokomotive Pamir — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
FT
0 – 0
Lokomotive Pamir
Lokomotive Pamir
8/23/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 13TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Regar-TadAZ49%
×Draw31%
Lokomotive Pamir20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Regar-TadAZ
1.17
Lokomotive Pamir
0.62

Regar-TadAZ creates 89% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 9 away

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.34
Lokomotive Pamir
0.11

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.13
Lokomotive Pamir
1.00

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par
Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

Lokomotive Pamir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw
80%
Regar-TadAZ or Lokomotive Pamir
69%
Draw or Lokomotive Pamir
51%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
22%
Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
69%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
33%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
11%
Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals
46%
Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals
13%
Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
72%
Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Lokomotive Pamir away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.34 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lokomotive Pamir attack 0.11 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more
49%
level
31%
Lokomotive Pamir scores more
20%

Regar-TadAZ at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Regar-TadAZ vs Lokomotive Pamir

Regar-TadAZ and Lokomotive Pamir drew 0-0 in Vysshaya Liga on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at TALCO Arena in Tursunzoda.