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Regar-TadAZ vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
S. Makhamadiev 6' (pen)
5/18/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 9Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Regar-TadAZ44%
×Draw25%
Khosilot Farkhor31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Regar-TadAZ
1.52
Khosilot Farkhor
1.23

Regar-TadAZ creates 24% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 27 away

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.52
Khosilot Farkhor
1.44

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.03
Khosilot Farkhor
1.52

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw
69%
Regar-TadAZ or Khosilot Farkhor
75%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
56%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
22%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
78%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
45%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
20%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
71%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
35%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
59%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.52 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.44 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more
44%
level
25%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
31%

Regar-TadAZ at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
S. MakhamadievPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Regar-TadAZ vs Khosilot Farkhor

Regar-TadAZ beat Khosilot Farkhor 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on May 18, 2025.

Goals: S. Makhamadiev (6' pen).

The match was played at Hisor Central Stadium in Hisor.