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Referencia U20 vs União Suzano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Referencia U20
Referencia U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
União Suzano U20
União Suzano U20
Kaue 83'
5/16/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Hermínio Espósito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Referencia U2042%
×Draw25%
União Suzano U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Referencia U20
1.47
União Suzano U20
1.28

Referencia U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

Referencia U20
1.35
União Suzano U20
0.95

allows per match

Referencia U20
1.61
União Suzano U20
1.59

finishing

Referencia U20+0.00on par
União Suzano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Referencia U20 ↓

União Suzano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Referencia U20 or draw
67%
Referencia U20 or União Suzano U20
75%
Draw or União Suzano U20
58%

Winning margin

Referencia U20 wins by 2+
20%
União Suzano U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Referencia U20 1+ goals
77%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
43%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
18%
União Suzano U20 1+ goals
72%
União Suzano U20 2+ goals
37%
União Suzano U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
56%
União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Referencia U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

União Suzano U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Referencia U20 attack 1.35 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

União Suzano U20 attack 0.95 + Referencia U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Referencia U20 scores more
42%
level
25%
União Suzano U20 scores more
33%

Referencia U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Referencia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'
Kaue
88'
C. Gomes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Referencia U20 vs União Suzano U20

Referencia U20 beat União Suzano U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 16, 2025.

Goals: Kaue (83').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Hermínio Espósito in Embu das Artes, São Paulo.