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Referencia U20 vs União São João U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Referencia U20
Referencia U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
União São João U20
União São João U20
Unknown 49'
L. Fonseca Von Beust 45+1'
Unknown 62'
7/17/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Municipal de Santana do Parnaíba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Referencia U2038%
×Draw26%
União São João U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Referencia U20
1.36
União São João U20
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

Referencia U20
1.35
União São João U20
1.00

allows per match

Referencia U20
1.61
União São João U20
1.37

finishing

Referencia U20+0.00on par
União São João U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Referencia U20 ↓

União São João U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Referencia U20 or draw
64%
Referencia U20 or União São João U20
74%
Draw or União São João U20
62%

Winning margin

Referencia U20 wins by 2+
17%
União São João U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Referencia U20 1+ goals
74%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
39%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
16%
União São João U20 1+ goals
73%
União São João U20 2+ goals
38%
União São João U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
52%
União São João U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Referencia U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

União São João U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Referencia U20 attack 1.35 + União São João U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Referencia U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Referencia U20 scores more
38%
level
26%
União São João U20 scores more
36%

Referencia U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Referencia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
L. Fonseca Von Beust
49'
62'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Referencia U20 2 – 1 União São João U20

Referencia U20 beat União São João U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 17, 2025.

Goals: L. Fonseca Von Beust (45+1'), ? (49', 62').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Santana do Parnaíba in Santana de Parnaíba, São Paulo.