Referencia U20 0–3 São Paulo U20: Result & Stats

Referencia U20

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

São Paulo U20

Andrade 90'

P. Sergio 48'

R. Francisco 10'

5/11/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Hermínio Espósito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Referencia U2022%

×Draw24%

São Paulo U2054%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Referencia U20Expected goals in this matchSão Paulo U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.75

Referencia U20

1.04

São Paulo U20

1.75

São Paulo U20 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

1.35

creates per match

1.90

1.61

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Referencia U20

1.35

São Paulo U20

1.90

allows per match

Referencia U20

1.61

São Paulo U20

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Referencia U20+0.00on par

São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Referencia U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Referencia U20 or draw

46%

Referencia U20 or São Paulo U20

76%

Draw or São Paulo U20

78%

Winning margin

Referencia U20 wins by 2+

8%

São Paulo U20 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Referencia U20 1+ goals

65%

Referencia U20 2+ goals

28%

Referencia U20 3+ goals

9%

São Paulo U20 1+ goals

83%

São Paulo U20 2+ goals

52%

São Paulo U20 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)

29%

São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Referencia U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Referencia U20 attack 1.35 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

São Paulo U20 attack 1.90 + Referencia U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Referencia U20 scores more

22%

level

24%

São Paulo U20 scores more

54%

São Paulo U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

R. Francisco

48'

P. Sergio

90'

Andrade

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff