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Referencia U20 vs Rio Claro SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Referencia U20
Referencia U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Claro SP U20
Rio Claro SP U20
7/4/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Hermínio Espósito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Referencia U2059%
×Draw20%
Rio Claro SP U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Referencia U20
2.17
Rio Claro SP U20
1.23

Referencia U20 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Referencia U20
1.35
Rio Claro SP U20
0.85

allows per match

Referencia U20
1.61
Rio Claro SP U20
3.00

finishing

Referencia U20+0.00on par
Rio Claro SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Referencia U20 ↓

Rio Claro SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Referencia U20 or draw
79%
Referencia U20 or Rio Claro SP U20
80%
Draw or Rio Claro SP U20
41%

Winning margin

Referencia U20 wins by 2+
36%
Rio Claro SP U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Referencia U20 1+ goals
89%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
64%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
36%
Rio Claro SP U20 1+ goals
71%
Rio Claro SP U20 2+ goals
35%
Rio Claro SP U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Rio Claro SP U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Referencia U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Rio Claro SP U20 away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Referencia U20 attack 1.35 + Rio Claro SP U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Rio Claro SP U20 attack 0.85 + Referencia U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Referencia U20 scores more
59%
level
20%
Rio Claro SP U20 scores more
21%

Referencia U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Referencia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Referencia U20 vs Rio Claro SP U20

Referencia U20 and Rio Claro SP U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on July 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Hermínio Espósito in Embu das Artes, São Paulo.