Referencia U20 2–1 Desportivo Brasil U20

Referencia U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Desportivo Brasil U20

Unknown 40', 25'

R. Rizardi 10'

9/8/2024

Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Hermínio Espósito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Referencia U2037%

×Draw24%

Desportivo Brasil U2039%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Referencia U20Expected goals in this matchDesportivo Brasil U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.52

Referencia U20

1.48

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.35

creates per match

1.43

1.61

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Referencia U20

1.35

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.43

allows per match

Referencia U20

1.61

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Referencia U20+0.00on par

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Referencia U20 ↓

Desportivo Brasil U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Referencia U20 or draw

61%

Referencia U20 or Desportivo Brasil U20

76%

Draw or Desportivo Brasil U20

63%

Winning margin

Referencia U20 wins by 2+

18%

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Referencia U20 1+ goals

77%

Referencia U20 2+ goals

43%

Referencia U20 3+ goals

19%

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals

78%

Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals

45%

Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)

49%

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Referencia U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Desportivo Brasil U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Referencia U20 attack 1.35 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.43 + Referencia U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Referencia U20 scores more

37%

level

24%

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more

39%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

R. Rizardi

25'

40'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff