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Referencia U20 vs Araçatuba U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Referencia U20
Referencia U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Araçatuba U20
Araçatuba U20
Jhow 83'
P. Ryan 73'
L. Oliveira 44'
Joao Rafael 34'
Bruno 75'
6/20/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Hermínio Espósito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Referencia U2065%
×Draw18%
Araçatuba U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Referencia U20
2.62
Araçatuba U20
1.31

Referencia U20 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 8 away

creates per match

Referencia U20
1.35
Araçatuba U20
1.00

allows per match

Referencia U20
1.61
Araçatuba U20
3.88

finishing

Referencia U20+0.00on par
Araçatuba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 75Under: 2575%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Referencia U20 ↓

Araçatuba U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Referencia U20 or draw
82%
Referencia U20 or Araçatuba U20
82%
Draw or Araçatuba U20
35%

Winning margin

Referencia U20 wins by 2+
44%
Araçatuba U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Referencia U20 1+ goals
93%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
73%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
48%
Araçatuba U20 1+ goals
73%
Araçatuba U20 2+ goals
38%
Araçatuba U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
79%
Araçatuba U20 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Referencia U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Araçatuba U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Referencia U20 attack 1.35 + Araçatuba U20 defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.62

Araçatuba U20 attack 1.00 + Referencia U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Referencia U20 scores more
65%
level
18%
Araçatuba U20 scores more
18%

Referencia U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Referencia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Joao Rafael
44'
L. Oliveira
73'
P. Ryan
75'
Bruno
83'
Jhow

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Referencia U20 4–1 Araçatuba U20

Referencia U20 beat Araçatuba U20 4-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 20, 2025.

Goals: Joao Rafael (34'), L. Oliveira (44'), P. Ryan (73'), Bruno (75'), Jhow (83').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Hermínio Espósito in Embu das Artes, São Paulo.