Redlands 8–2 Coachella: Result & Stats

Redlands

FT

8 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Coachella

7/7/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 18Dodge Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Redlands92%

×Draw5%

Coachella3%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RedlandsExpected goals in this matchCoachella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

5.64

1.20

Redlands

5.64

Coachella

1.20

Redlands creates 370% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

2.83

creates per match

0.73

1.67

allows per match

8.45

creates per match

Redlands

2.83

Coachella

0.73

allows per match

Redlands

1.67

Coachella

8.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Redlands+0.00on par

Coachella+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redlands ↓

Coachella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–11%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–03%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 50% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

86%14%4.5

72%28%

Double chance

Redlands or draw

97%

Redlands or Coachella

95%

Draw or Coachella

8%

Winning margin

Redlands wins by 2+

81%

Coachella wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Redlands 1+ goals

99%

Redlands 2+ goals

96%

Redlands 3+ goals

88%

Coachella 1+ goals

70%

Coachella 2+ goals

34%

Coachella 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Redlands (draw refunded)

97%

Coachella (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redlands at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Coachella away — creates 0.73, concedes 8.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redlands attack 2.83 + Coachella defence 8.45 → ÷2 → 5.64

Coachella attack 0.73 + Redlands defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Redlands scores more

92%

level

5%

Coachella scores more

3%

Redlands at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Redlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff