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Redlands United vs Olympic — Queensland NPL 2026

Redlands United
Redlands United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Olympic
Olympic
6/9/2023Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 13Arthur & Allan Morris Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Redlands United25%
×Draw21%
Olympic54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redlands United
1.43
Olympic
2.17

Olympic creates 52% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 103 away

creates per match

Redlands United
1.26
Olympic
2.01

allows per match

Redlands United
2.34
Olympic
1.60

finishing

Redlands United+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redlands United ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Redlands United or draw
46%
Redlands United or Olympic
79%
Draw or Olympic
75%

Winning margin

Redlands United wins by 2+
11%
Olympic wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Redlands United 1+ goals
76%
Redlands United 2+ goals
42%
Redlands United 3+ goals
17%
Olympic 1+ goals
89%
Olympic 2+ goals
64%
Olympic 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Redlands United (draw refunded)
32%
Olympic (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redlands United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Olympic away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.60 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redlands United attack 1.26 + Olympic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Olympic attack 2.01 + Redlands United defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Redlands United scores more
25%
level
21%
Olympic scores more
54%

Olympic at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Redlands United vs Olympic

Redlands United beat Olympic 2-1 in Queensland NPL on June 9, 2023.

The match was played at Arthur & Allan Morris Field in Brisbane.