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Redlands United vs North Star — Queensland Premier League 2026

Redlands United
Redlands United
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
North Star
North Star
Unknown 90', 58', 40', 27', 3'
3/28/2026Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 6Compass Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Redlands United50%
×Draw23%
North Star28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redlands United
1.86
North Star
1.33

Redlands United creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Redlands United
1.73
North Star
0.80

allows per match

Redlands United
1.87
North Star
2.00

finishing

Redlands United+0.00on par
North Star+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redlands United ↓

North Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Redlands United or draw
72%
Redlands United or North Star
77%
Draw or North Star
50%

Winning margin

Redlands United wins by 2+
28%
North Star wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Redlands United 1+ goals
84%
Redlands United 2+ goals
55%
Redlands United 3+ goals
28%
North Star 1+ goals
74%
North Star 2+ goals
38%
North Star 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Redlands United (draw refunded)
64%
North Star (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redlands United at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

North Star away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redlands United attack 1.73 + North Star defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

North Star attack 0.80 + Redlands United defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Redlands United scores more
50%
level
23%
North Star scores more
28%

Redlands United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Redlands United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
27'
40'
58'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Redlands United vs North Star

Redlands United beat North Star 5-0 in Queensland Premier League on March 28, 2026.

Goals: ? (3', 27', 40', 58', 90').

The match was played at Compass Grounds.