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Redlands United vs Caboolture — Queensland Premier League 2026

Redlands United
Redlands United
Preview
08:00
Caboolture
Caboolture
8/1/2026Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 20Compass Grounds
Big match
47%
Redlands United
model favours
47%21%32%

Both teams score in 100% of Redlands United’s matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Redlands United47%
×Draw21%
Caboolture32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redlands United
2.12
Caboolture
1.71

Redlands United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

Redlands United
2.19
Caboolture
1.86

allows per match

Redlands United
1.56
Caboolture
2.04

finishing

Redlands United+0.00on par
Caboolture+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redlands United ↓

Caboolture →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Redlands United or draw
68%
Redlands United or Caboolture
79%
Draw or Caboolture
53%

Winning margin

Redlands United wins by 2+
27%
Caboolture wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Redlands United 1+ goals
88%
Redlands United 2+ goals
62%
Redlands United 3+ goals
35%
Caboolture 1+ goals
82%
Caboolture 2+ goals
51%
Caboolture 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Redlands United (draw refunded)
60%
Caboolture (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redlands United at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Caboolture away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.04 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redlands United attack 2.19 + Caboolture defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.12

Caboolture attack 1.86 + Redlands United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Redlands United scores more
47%
level
21%
Caboolture scores more
32%

Redlands United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Redlands United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Redlands United have scored in 8 games running
  • Redlands United score first in only 31% of matches
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 6.4 goals
  • Redlands United win just 15% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
United
DDWLW
Caboolture
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Redlands United vs Caboolture — Match Preview

Redlands United face Caboolture on August 1, 2026 in this Queensland Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Redlands United host Caboolture at Compass Grounds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.