Caboolture 2–7 Redlands United: Result & Stats

Caboolture

FT

2 – 7

HT: 2 – 4

Redlands United

Unknown 19', 6'

J. Wilson 85'

K. Crawford 80'

D. Brook 66' (pen), 40' (pen), 36'

N. Hitchcock 45+7'

J. Keogh 22'

8/9/2025

Queensland Premier League · Round 20Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Caboolture31%

×Draw20%

Redlands United48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CabooltureExpected goals in this matchRedlands United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

2.23

Caboolture

1.78

Redlands United

2.23

Redlands United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 31 away

1.98

creates per match

2.23

2.22

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Caboolture

1.98

Redlands United

2.23

allows per match

Caboolture

2.22

Redlands United

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caboolture+0.00on par

Redlands United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caboolture ↓

Redlands United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Caboolture or draw

52%

Caboolture or Redlands United

80%

Draw or Redlands United

69%

Winning margin

Caboolture wins by 2+

16%

Redlands United wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Caboolture 1+ goals

83%

Caboolture 2+ goals

53%

Caboolture 3+ goals

26%

Redlands United 1+ goals

89%

Redlands United 2+ goals

65%

Redlands United 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Caboolture (draw refunded)

39%

Redlands United (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caboolture at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.22 · 54 matches

Redlands United away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caboolture attack 1.98 + Redlands United defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.78

Redlands United attack 2.23 + Caboolture defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Caboolture scores more

31%

level

20%

Redlands United scores more

48%

Redlands United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Redlands United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

19'

22'

J. Keogh

28'

36'

D. Brook

40'

D. BrookPenalty

45+7'

N. Hitchcock

66'

D. BrookPenalty

80'

K. Crawford

85'

J. Wilson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff