Redeyef 2–1 Ksour Essef: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Redeyef

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ksour Essef

2/15/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Redeyef58%

×Draw26%

Ksour Essef16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RedeyefExpected goals in this matchKsour Essef

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.66

Redeyef

1.50

Ksour Essef

0.66

Redeyef creates 127% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.54

creates per match

0.62

0.69

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Redeyef

1.54

Ksour Essef

0.62

allows per match

Redeyef

0.69

Ksour Essef

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Redeyef+0.00on par

Ksour Essef+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redeyef ↓

Ksour Essef →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Redeyef or draw

84%

Redeyef or Ksour Essef

74%

Draw or Ksour Essef

42%

Winning margin

Redeyef wins by 2+

30%

Ksour Essef wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Redeyef 1+ goals

78%

Redeyef 2+ goals

44%

Redeyef 3+ goals

19%

Ksour Essef 1+ goals

48%

Ksour Essef 2+ goals

14%

Ksour Essef 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Redeyef (draw refunded)

78%

Ksour Essef (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redeyef at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

Ksour Essef away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redeyef attack 1.54 + Ksour Essef defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ksour Essef attack 0.62 + Redeyef defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Redeyef scores more

58%

level

26%

Ksour Essef scores more

16%

Redeyef at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Redeyef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff