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Redeyef vs EO Sidi Bouzid — Ligue 2 2020

Redeyef
Redeyef
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
2/22/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Municipal de Redeyef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Redeyef58%
×Draw25%
EO Sidi Bouzid17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redeyef
1.59
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.73

Redeyef creates 118% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 49 away

creates per match

Redeyef
1.54
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.78

allows per match

Redeyef
0.69
EO Sidi Bouzid
1.65

finishing

Redeyef+0.00on par
EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redeyef ↓

EO Sidi Bouzid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Redeyef or draw
83%
Redeyef or EO Sidi Bouzid
75%
Draw or EO Sidi Bouzid
42%

Winning margin

Redeyef wins by 2+
31%
EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Redeyef 1+ goals
80%
Redeyef 2+ goals
47%
Redeyef 3+ goals
21%
EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
52%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
17%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Redeyef (draw refunded)
77%
EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redeyef at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

EO Sidi Bouzid away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redeyef attack 1.54 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 0.78 + Redeyef defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Redeyef scores more
58%
level
25%
EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
17%

Redeyef at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Redeyef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Redeyef 3–1 EO Sidi Bouzid

Redeyef beat EO Sidi Bouzid 3-1 in Ligue 2 on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Redeyef in Redeyef.