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Reddis vs Terrassa — League #877 2026

Reddis
Reddis
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Terrassa
Terrassa
S. Toscano 67'
R. Folch 43'
F. Carbia 10'
12/7/2025League #877League #877 · Group 3 - 14Estadi Municipal de Reus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Reddis56%
×Draw25%
Terrassa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reddis
1.57
Terrassa
0.78

Reddis creates 101% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Reddis
1.14
Terrassa
1.00

allows per match

Reddis
0.57
Terrassa
2.00

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par
Terrassa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Terrassa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Reddis or draw
81%
Reddis or Terrassa
75%
Draw or Terrassa
44%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+
30%
Terrassa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals
79%
Reddis 2+ goals
46%
Reddis 3+ goals
21%
Terrassa 1+ goals
54%
Terrassa 2+ goals
18%
Terrassa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)
75%
Terrassa (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Terrassa away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.14 + Terrassa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Terrassa attack 1.00 + Reddis defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Reddis scores more
56%
level
25%
Terrassa scores more
19%

Reddis at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
F. Carbia
43'
R. Folch
67'
S. Toscano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reddis vs Terrassa

Reddis beat Terrassa 3-0 in League #877 on December 7, 2025.

Goals: F. Carbia (10'), R. Folch (43'), S. Toscano (67').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Reus in Reus.