Reddis 2–1 San Cristóbal: Result & Stats

Reddis

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

San Cristóbal

Joan Torrents 30'

Ramón Folch 8'

David Acedo 24'

11/24/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis52%

×Draw29%

San Cristóbal20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchSan Cristóbal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.69

Reddis

1.31

San Cristóbal

0.69

Reddis creates 90% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 108 away

1.47

creates per match

0.78

0.59

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

San Cristóbal

0.78

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

San Cristóbal

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

San Cristóbal →

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

80%

Reddis or San Cristóbal

71%

Draw or San Cristóbal

48%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

24%

San Cristóbal wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

73%

Reddis 2+ goals

38%

Reddis 3+ goals

14%

San Cristóbal 1+ goals

50%

San Cristóbal 2+ goals

15%

San Cristóbal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

72%

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Reddis scores more

52%

level

29%

San Cristóbal scores more

20%

Reddis at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Ramón Folch

24'

David Acedo

30'

Joan Torrents

63'

Mara← Izan Rosena

65'

Hugo Moreno← Pol Benito

75'

Lamine Diaby← Héctor Parrado

75'

Mario Hervías← David Acedo

84'

Nico Díaz← Joan Torrents

90'

Marc Grau← Xavi Jaime

90'

Pol Fernández← Alberto Benito

90'

Xavier Quirante← Adrián Cabrerizo

Reddis

San

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Torrents

Manager: Marc Carrasco

65'▲Hugo Moreno←▼Pol Benito

84'▲Nico Díaz←▼Joan Torrents

90'▲Marc Grau←▼Xavi Jaime

90'▲Pol Fernández←▼Alberto Benito

Reddis substitutes

MorenoDíazGrauFernández

Manager: Cristian

63'▲Mara←▼Izan Rosena

75'▲Lamine Diaby←▼Héctor Parrado

75'▲Mario Hervías←▼David Acedo

90'▲Xavier Quirante←▼Adrián Cabrerizo

San Cristóbal substitutes

MaraDiabyHervíasQuirante