Reddis 1–2 Sabadell II: Result & Stats

Reddis

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sabadell II

Ramón Sardà 90+4'

Joaquim Utgés 38'

Albert Morral 25'

4/13/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 30Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Reddis52%

×Draw25%

Sabadell II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchSabadell II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.03

Reddis

1.65

Sabadell II

1.03

Reddis creates 60% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.47

creates per match

1.47

0.59

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Sabadell II

1.47

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Sabadell II

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Sabadell II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Sabadell II →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

76%

Reddis or Sabadell II

75%

Draw or Sabadell II

48%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

28%

Sabadell II wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

81%

Reddis 2+ goals

49%

Reddis 3+ goals

23%

Sabadell II 1+ goals

64%

Sabadell II 2+ goals

28%

Sabadell II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

69%

Sabadell II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Sabadell II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Sabadell II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sabadell II attack 1.47 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Reddis scores more

52%

level

25%

Sabadell II scores more

24%

Reddis at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Albert Morral

38'

Joaquim Utgés

46'

Pau Russó← Aitor Serrano

46'

Ramón Sardà← Hugo Moreno

62'

Pedro Martín← Joan Torrents

68'

Hugo García← A. Camara

68'

Adrià González← Pol Fernández

75'

Junior← M. Es Sahel

76'

Pol Benito← Ricardo Vaz

83'

Pol Castell← Albert Morral

83'

Pol García← Pol Fornell

90+4'

Ramón Sardà

Reddis

Sabadell

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marc Carrasco

46'▲Pau Russó←▼Aitor Serrano

46'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Hugo Moreno

62'▲Pedro Martín←▼Joan Torrents

76'▲Pol Benito←▼Ricardo Vaz

Reddis substitutes

RussóSardàMartínBenito

Manager: Conrad García

68'▲Hugo García←▼A. Camara

68'▲Adrià González←▼Pol Fernández

75'▲Junior←▼M. Es Sahel

83'▲Pol Castell←▼Albert Morral

83'▲Pol García←▼Pol Fornell

Sabadell II substitutes

GarcíaGonzálezJuniorCastellGarcía

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Reddis 1–2 Sabadell II

Sabadell II beat Reddis 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 13, 2025.

Goals: Albert Morral (25'), Joaquim Utgés (38'), Ramón Sardà (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal in Reus.

Reddis vs Sabadell II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Reddis 1–2 Sabadell II