Reddis 0–1 Peralada: Result & Stats

Reddis

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Peralada

Gerard Caixas 66'

9/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis47%

×Draw29%

Peralada24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchPeralada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.80

Reddis

1.25

Peralada

0.80

Reddis creates 56% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 110 away

1.47

creates per match

1.01

0.59

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Peralada

1.01

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Peralada

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Peralada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Peralada →

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

76%

Reddis or Peralada

71%

Draw or Peralada

53%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

21%

Peralada wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

71%

Reddis 2+ goals

36%

Reddis 3+ goals

13%

Peralada 1+ goals

55%

Peralada 2+ goals

19%

Peralada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

66%

Peralada (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Peralada away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Peralada defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Peralada attack 1.01 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Reddis scores more

47%

level

29%

Peralada scores more

24%

Reddis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Gerard Caixas← Bamta Bande

59'

A. Traoré← Khalid Noureddine

64'

Marc Grau← Pol Benito

66'

Gerard Caixas

74'

Pau Russó← Xavi Jaime

74'

Ramón Sardà← Joan Torrents

81'

Pol Blay← Iván Amoedo

90+1'

Sergio Romero← Dani Gómez

Reddis

Peralada

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marc Carrasco

64'▲Marc Grau←▼Pol Benito

74'▲Pau Russó←▼Xavi Jaime

74'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Joan Torrents

Reddis substitutes

GrauRussóSardà

Manager: Joan Tomás

59'▲Gerard Caixas←▼Bamta Bande

59'▲A. Traoré←▼Khalid Noureddine

81'▲Pol Blay←▼Iván Amoedo

90+1'▲Sergio Romero←▼Dani Gómez

Peralada substitutes

CaixasTraoréBlayRomero