Reddis 2–0 Montañesa: Result & Stats

Reddis

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Montañesa

9/24/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis57%

×Draw27%

Montañesa16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchMontañesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.64

Reddis

1.47

Montañesa

0.64

Reddis creates 130% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

1.47

creates per match

0.68

0.59

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Montañesa

0.68

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Montañesa

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Montañesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Montañesa →

0–012%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

84%

Reddis or Montañesa

73%

Draw or Montañesa

43%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

30%

Montañesa wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

77%

Reddis 2+ goals

43%

Reddis 3+ goals

18%

Montañesa 1+ goals

47%

Montañesa 2+ goals

14%

Montañesa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

78%

Montañesa (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Montañesa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Montañesa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Montañesa attack 0.68 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Reddis scores more

57%

level

27%

Montañesa scores more

16%

Reddis at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff