Reddis 3–1 Manresa: Result & Stats

Reddis

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Manresa

Aitor Serrano 82'

Joan Torrents 74'

Ricardo Vaz 53'

M. Ezzarfani 42'

10/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis44%

×Draw29%

Manresa27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchManresa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.93

Reddis

1.26

Manresa

0.93

Reddis creates 35% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 76 away

1.47

creates per match

1.26

0.59

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Manresa

1.26

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Manresa

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Manresa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Manresa →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

73%

Reddis or Manresa

71%

Draw or Manresa

56%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

20%

Manresa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

72%

Reddis 2+ goals

36%

Reddis 3+ goals

13%

Manresa 1+ goals

61%

Manresa 2+ goals

24%

Manresa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

62%

Manresa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Manresa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Manresa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Manresa attack 1.26 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reddis scores more

44%

level

29%

Manresa scores more

27%

Reddis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

M. Ezzarfani

53'

Ricardo Vaz

61'

Joan Torrents← Alberto Benito

62'

Aleix Díaz← Eloy Gila

62'

Isa Drammeh← Salva Costa

69'

Izan Sarmiento← Antonio Romero

69'

David Batanero← M. Ezzarfani

70'

Hugo Moreno← Pau Russó

74'

Joan Torrents

82'

Aitor Serrano

85'

Jaime Márquez← Nil Garrido

90'

Pol Benito← Ricardo Vaz

90'

Marc Grau← Ramón Folch

Reddis

Manresa

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Marc Carrasco

61'▲Joan Torrents←▼Alberto Benito

70'▲Hugo Moreno←▼Pau Russó

90'▲Pol Benito←▼Ricardo Vaz

90'▲Marc Grau←▼Ramón Folch

Reddis substitutes

TorrentsMorenoBenitoGrau

Manager: Mikel Azparren

62'▲Aleix Díaz←▼Eloy Gila

62'▲Isa Drammeh←▼Salva Costa

69'▲Izan Sarmiento←▼Antonio Romero

69'▲David Batanero←▼M. Ezzarfani

85'▲Jaime Márquez←▼Nil Garrido

Manresa substitutes

DíazDrammehSarmientoBataneroMárquez