Reddis 1–1 L'Hospitalet: Result & Stats

Reddis

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

L'Hospitalet

Ramón Sardà 90+8' (pen)

Xavi Molina 27' (OG)

3/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis44%

×Draw27%

L'Hospitalet29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchL'Hospitalet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.05

Reddis

1.37

L'Hospitalet

1.05

Reddis creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 95 away

1.47

creates per match

1.51

0.59

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

L'Hospitalet

1.51

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

L'Hospitalet

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

L'Hospitalet →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

71%

Reddis or L'Hospitalet

73%

Draw or L'Hospitalet

56%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

21%

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

75%

Reddis 2+ goals

40%

Reddis 3+ goals

16%

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals

65%

L'Hospitalet 2+ goals

28%

L'Hospitalet 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

61%

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

L'Hospitalet attack 1.51 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reddis scores more

44%

level

27%

L'Hospitalet scores more

29%

Reddis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Xavi MolinaOwn goal

46'

H. Toivonen← Ian Martínez

59'

Sehou Sarr← Joel Lasso

64'

Dani Argilaga← Raúl Melo

68'

Lobato← Ander Montori

68'

Sanku← Óscar Gómez

81'

Ramón Sardà← Pol Benito

82'

Marc Vicente← S. One

82'

Jesús Pozo← Raúl Ferrer

90+8'

Ramón SardàPenalty

Reddis

L'Hospitalet

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marc Carrasco

46'▲H. Toivonen←▼Ian Martínez

64'▲Dani Argilaga←▼Raúl Melo

81'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Pol Benito

Reddis substitutes

ToivonenArgilagaSardà

Manager: Joan Sánchez

59'▲Sehou Sarr←▼Joel Lasso

68'▲Lobato←▼Ander Montori

68'▲Sanku←▼Óscar Gómez

82'▲Marc Vicente←▼S. One

82'▲Jesús Pozo←▼Raúl Ferrer

L'Hospitalet substitutes

SarrLobatoSankuVicentePozo

Match Recap: Reddis vs L'Hospitalet

Reddis and L'Hospitalet drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 28, 2024.

Goals: Xavi Molina (27' o.g.), Ramón Sardà (90+8' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal in Reus.

Reddis vs L'Hospitalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Reddis vs L'Hospitalet