Reddis 1–0 L'Escala: Result & Stats

Reddis

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

L'Escala

Xavi Jaime 71'

1/19/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 18Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis57%

×Draw25%

L'Escala18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchL'Escala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.77

Reddis

1.58

L'Escala

0.77

Reddis creates 105% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.47

creates per match

0.96

0.59

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

L'Escala

0.96

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

L'Escala

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

L'Escala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

L'Escala →

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

82%

Reddis or L'Escala

75%

Draw or L'Escala

43%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

30%

L'Escala wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

79%

Reddis 2+ goals

47%

Reddis 3+ goals

21%

L'Escala 1+ goals

54%

L'Escala 2+ goals

18%

L'Escala 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

76%

L'Escala (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

L'Escala away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + L'Escala defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

L'Escala attack 0.96 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Reddis scores more

57%

level

25%

L'Escala scores more

18%

Reddis at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Pau Russó← Marc Grau

58'

S. Toscano← Hugo Moreno

62'

Marc Padilla← Martin Alonso

62'

Xavi Germán← Marc Gelmà

71'

Xavi Jaime

75'

Hugo Yañez← B. Charreh

75'

David Ruano← Biel Borra

81'

Osuman Mballow← H. Davis

82'

Pedro Martín← Joan Torrents

82'

Pol Fernández← Ramón Folch

86'

Nico Díaz← Ricardo Vaz

Reddis

L'Escala

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Marc Carrasco

58'▲Pau Russó←▼Marc Grau

58'▲S. Toscano←▼Hugo Moreno

82'▲Pedro Martín←▼Joan Torrents

82'▲Pol Fernández←▼Ramón Folch

86'▲Nico Díaz←▼Ricardo Vaz

Reddis substitutes

RussóToscanoMartínFernándezDíaz

Manager: Raul Paje

62'▲Marc Padilla←▼Martin Alonso

62'▲Xavi Germán←▼Marc Gelmà

75'▲Hugo Yañez←▼B. Charreh

75'▲David Ruano←▼Biel Borra

81'▲Osuman Mballow←▼H. Davis

L'Escala substitutes

PadillaGermánYañezRuanoMballow