Reddis 1–0 Girona II: Result & Stats | League #877

Reddis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Girona II

9/7/2025

League #877 · Group 3 - 1Estadi Municipal de Reus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Reddis46%

×Draw33%

Girona II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchGirona II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.62

Reddis

1.07

Girona II

0.62

Reddis creates 73% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.14

creates per match

0.67

0.57

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Reddis

1.14

Girona II

0.67

allows per match

Reddis

0.57

Girona II

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Girona II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

79%

Reddis or Girona II

67%

Draw or Girona II

54%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

19%

Girona II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

66%

Reddis 2+ goals

29%

Reddis 3+ goals

9%

Girona II 1+ goals

46%

Girona II 2+ goals

13%

Girona II 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

69%

Girona II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Girona II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.14 + Girona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Girona II attack 0.67 + Reddis defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Reddis scores more

46%

level

33%

Girona II scores more

21%

Reddis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff