Redcar Athletic 1–5 Hartlepool: Result & Stats

Redcar Athletic

FT

1 – 5

Hartlepool

7/25/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Green Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Redcar Athletic11%

×Draw13%

Hartlepool76%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Redcar AthleticExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

3.38

Redcar Athletic

1.25

Hartlepool

3.38

Hartlepool creates 170% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

3.50

3.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Redcar Athletic

1.00

Hartlepool

3.50

allows per match

Redcar Athletic

3.25

Hartlepool

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Redcar Athletic+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redcar Athletic ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–37%

0–46%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Redcar Athletic or draw

24%

Redcar Athletic or Hartlepool

87%

Draw or Hartlepool

89%

Winning margin

Redcar Athletic wins by 2+

4%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

58%

Team goals

Redcar Athletic 1+ goals

71%

Redcar Athletic 2+ goals

36%

Redcar Athletic 3+ goals

13%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

96%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

84%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Redcar Athletic (draw refunded)

12%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redcar Athletic at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redcar Athletic attack 1.00 + Hartlepool defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hartlepool attack 3.50 + Redcar Athletic defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Redcar Athletic scores more

11%

level

13%

Hartlepool scores more

76%

Hartlepool at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff