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Redbridge vs Tilbury — League #52 2026

Redbridge
Redbridge
FT
1 – 2
Tilbury
Tilbury
9/30/2024League #52League #52 · Isthmian North - 7Oakside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Redbridge35%
×Draw21%
Tilbury44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redbridge
1.89
Tilbury
2.12

Tilbury creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Redbridge
2.27
Tilbury
2.50

allows per match

Redbridge
1.73
Tilbury
1.50

finishing

Redbridge+0.00on par
Tilbury+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redbridge ↓

Tilbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Redbridge or draw
56%
Redbridge or Tilbury
79%
Draw or Tilbury
65%

Winning margin

Redbridge wins by 2+
18%
Tilbury wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Redbridge 1+ goals
85%
Redbridge 2+ goals
56%
Redbridge 3+ goals
29%
Tilbury 1+ goals
88%
Tilbury 2+ goals
62%
Tilbury 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Redbridge (draw refunded)
45%
Tilbury (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redbridge at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Tilbury away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redbridge attack 2.27 + Tilbury defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.89

Tilbury attack 2.50 + Redbridge defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Redbridge scores more
35%
level
21%
Tilbury scores more
44%

Tilbury at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tilbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Redbridge vs Tilbury

Tilbury beat Redbridge 2-1 in League #52 on September 30, 2024.

The match was played at Oakside Stadium in Ilford, Essex.