Redbridge 2–2 Newmarket Town: Result & Stats

Redbridge

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Newmarket Town

4/6/2026

League #52 · Isthmian North - 39Oakside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Redbridge45%

×Draw21%

Newmarket Town35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RedbridgeExpected goals in this matchNewmarket Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.86

Redbridge

2.13

Newmarket Town

1.86

Redbridge creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

2.27

creates per match

2.00

1.73

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Redbridge

2.27

Newmarket Town

2.00

allows per match

Redbridge

1.73

Newmarket Town

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Redbridge+0.00on par

Newmarket Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redbridge ↓

Newmarket Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Redbridge or draw

65%

Redbridge or Newmarket Town

79%

Draw or Newmarket Town

55%

Winning margin

Redbridge wins by 2+

26%

Newmarket Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Redbridge 1+ goals

88%

Redbridge 2+ goals

63%

Redbridge 3+ goals

35%

Newmarket Town 1+ goals

84%

Newmarket Town 2+ goals

55%

Newmarket Town 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Redbridge (draw refunded)

56%

Newmarket Town (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redbridge at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Newmarket Town away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redbridge attack 2.27 + Newmarket Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Newmarket Town attack 2.00 + Redbridge defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Redbridge scores more

45%

level

21%

Newmarket Town scores more

35%

Redbridge at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Redbridge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff