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Red Star Penzing vs Stadlau — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Red Star Penzing
Red Star Penzing
FT
2 – 0
Stadlau
Stadlau
5/31/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 27Sportplatz Red Star Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Red Star Penzing52%
×Draw23%
Stadlau25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Star Penzing
1.85
Stadlau
1.23

Red Star Penzing creates 50% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 75 away

creates per match

Red Star Penzing
2.00
Stadlau
1.48

allows per match

Red Star Penzing
0.97
Stadlau
1.71

finishing

Red Star Penzing+0.00on par
Stadlau+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Star Penzing ↓

Stadlau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Red Star Penzing or draw
75%
Red Star Penzing or Stadlau
77%
Draw or Stadlau
48%

Winning margin

Red Star Penzing wins by 2+
29%
Stadlau wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Red Star Penzing 1+ goals
84%
Red Star Penzing 2+ goals
55%
Red Star Penzing 3+ goals
28%
Stadlau 1+ goals
71%
Stadlau 2+ goals
35%
Stadlau 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Red Star Penzing (draw refunded)
67%
Stadlau (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Star Penzing at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Stadlau away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.71 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Star Penzing attack 2.00 + Stadlau defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Stadlau attack 1.48 + Red Star Penzing defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Red Star Penzing scores more
52%
level
23%
Stadlau scores more
25%

Red Star Penzing at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Red Star Penzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Red Star Penzing 2–0 Stadlau

Red Star Penzing beat Stadlau 2-0 in Landesliga - Wien on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Red Star Auto in Wien.