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Red Star Merl-Belair vs The Belval Belvaux — Cup 2020

Red Star Merl-Belair
Red Star Merl-Belair
FT
6 – 2
The Belval Belvaux
The Belval Belvaux
9/11/2022CupCup · 1st RoundStade Prince Jean

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Red Star Merl-Belair39%
×Draw19%
The Belval Belvaux42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Star Merl-Belair
2.48
The Belval Belvaux
2.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Red Star Merl-Belair
2.20
The Belval Belvaux
3.50

allows per match

Red Star Merl-Belair
1.60
The Belval Belvaux
2.75

finishing

Red Star Merl-Belair+0.00on par
The Belval Belvaux+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Star Merl-Belair ↓

The Belval Belvaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Red Star Merl-Belair or draw
58%
Red Star Merl-Belair or The Belval Belvaux
81%
Draw or The Belval Belvaux
61%

Winning margin

Red Star Merl-Belair wins by 2+
23%
The Belval Belvaux wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Red Star Merl-Belair 1+ goals
92%
Red Star Merl-Belair 2+ goals
70%
Red Star Merl-Belair 3+ goals
44%
The Belval Belvaux 1+ goals
92%
The Belval Belvaux 2+ goals
72%
The Belval Belvaux 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Red Star Merl-Belair (draw refunded)
49%
The Belval Belvaux (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Star Merl-Belair at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

The Belval Belvaux away — creates 3.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Star Merl-Belair attack 2.20 + The Belval Belvaux defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.48

The Belval Belvaux attack 3.50 + Red Star Merl-Belair defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Red Star Merl-Belair scores more
39%
level
19%
The Belval Belvaux scores more
42%

The Belval Belvaux at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "The Belval Belvaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Red Star Merl-Belair 6–2 The Belval Belvaux

Red Star Merl-Belair beat The Belval Belvaux 6-2 in Cup on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Prince Jean in Luxembourg.