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Red Star Merl-Belair vs Syra Mensdorf — Cup 2020

Red Star Merl-Belair
Red Star Merl-Belair
FT
0 – 2
Syra Mensdorf
Syra Mensdorf
9/7/2024CupCup · 1st RoundStade Prince Jean

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Red Star Merl-Belair19%
×Draw18%
Syra Mensdorf63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Star Merl-Belair
1.35
Syra Mensdorf
2.55

Syra Mensdorf creates 89% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Red Star Merl-Belair
2.20
Syra Mensdorf
3.50

allows per match

Red Star Merl-Belair
1.60
Syra Mensdorf
0.50

finishing

Red Star Merl-Belair+0.00on par
Syra Mensdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Star Merl-Belair ↓

Syra Mensdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Red Star Merl-Belair or draw
37%
Red Star Merl-Belair or Syra Mensdorf
82%
Draw or Syra Mensdorf
81%

Winning margin

Red Star Merl-Belair wins by 2+
8%
Syra Mensdorf wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Red Star Merl-Belair 1+ goals
74%
Red Star Merl-Belair 2+ goals
39%
Red Star Merl-Belair 3+ goals
15%
Syra Mensdorf 1+ goals
92%
Syra Mensdorf 2+ goals
72%
Syra Mensdorf 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Red Star Merl-Belair (draw refunded)
23%
Syra Mensdorf (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Star Merl-Belair at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Syra Mensdorf away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Star Merl-Belair attack 2.20 + Syra Mensdorf defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Syra Mensdorf attack 3.50 + Red Star Merl-Belair defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Red Star Merl-Belair scores more
19%
level
18%
Syra Mensdorf scores more
63%

Syra Mensdorf at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Syra Mensdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Star Merl-Belair vs Syra Mensdorf

Syra Mensdorf beat Red Star Merl-Belair 2-0 in Cup on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Prince Jean in Luxembourg.