Red Star Merl-Belair 0–1 Blô-Weiss Medernach

Red Star Merl-Belair

0 – 1

Blô-Weiss Medernach

10/2/2022

Cup · 2nd RoundStade Prince Jean

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Red Star Merl-Belair31%

×Draw24%

Blô-Weiss Medernach45%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Star Merl-BelairExpected goals in this matchBlô-Weiss Medernach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.68

Red Star Merl-Belair

1.35

Blô-Weiss Medernach

1.68

Blô-Weiss Medernach creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.20

creates per match

1.75

1.60

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Red Star Merl-Belair

2.20

Blô-Weiss Medernach

1.75

allows per match

Red Star Merl-Belair

1.60

Blô-Weiss Medernach

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Star Merl-Belair+0.00on par

Blô-Weiss Medernach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Star Merl-Belair ↓

Blô-Weiss Medernach →

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Red Star Merl-Belair or draw

55%

Red Star Merl-Belair or Blô-Weiss Medernach

76%

Draw or Blô-Weiss Medernach

69%

Winning margin

Red Star Merl-Belair wins by 2+

14%

Blô-Weiss Medernach wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Red Star Merl-Belair 1+ goals

74%

Red Star Merl-Belair 2+ goals

39%

Red Star Merl-Belair 3+ goals

15%

Blô-Weiss Medernach 1+ goals

81%

Blô-Weiss Medernach 2+ goals

50%

Blô-Weiss Medernach 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Red Star Merl-Belair (draw refunded)

41%

Blô-Weiss Medernach (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Red Star Merl-Belair at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Blô-Weiss Medernach away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Red Star Merl-Belair attack 2.20 + Blô-Weiss Medernach defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Blô-Weiss Medernach attack 1.75 + Red Star Merl-Belair defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Red Star Merl-Belair scores more

31%

level

24%

Blô-Weiss Medernach scores more

45%

Blô-Weiss Medernach at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blô-Weiss Medernach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff