RED Star FC 93 1–2 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

RED Star FC 93

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Niort

7/27/2018

Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Jean-Bouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

RED Star FC 9340%

×Draw27%

Niort32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RED Star FC 93Expected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.13

RED Star FC 93

1.29

Niort

1.13

RED Star FC 93 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 96 away

1.05

creates per match

0.83

1.42

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

RED Star FC 93

1.05

Niort

0.83

allows per match

RED Star FC 93

1.42

Niort

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw

68%

RED Star FC 93 or Niort

73%

Draw or Niort

60%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

18%

Niort wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

72%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

37%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

14%

Niort 1+ goals

68%

Niort 2+ goals

31%

Niort 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

55%

Niort (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Niort away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.05 + Niort defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Niort attack 0.83 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more

40%

level

27%

Niort scores more

32%

RED Star FC 93 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RED Star FC 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff