Niort 1–1 RED Star FC 93: Result & Stats

Niort

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

RED Star FC 93

B. Ecuele Manga 23'

A. Anani 69'

11/6/2023

League #63 · Round 12Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Niort42%

×Draw25%

RED Star FC 9333%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchRED Star FC 93

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.30

Niort

1.50

RED Star FC 93

1.30

Niort creates 15% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

1.60

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Niort

2.00

RED Star FC 93

1.60

allows per match

Niort

1.00

RED Star FC 93

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

RED Star FC 93 →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Niort or draw

67%

Niort or RED Star FC 93

75%

Draw or RED Star FC 93

58%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

20%

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

78%

Niort 2+ goals

44%

Niort 3+ goals

19%

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

73%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

37%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

56%

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 2.00 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.60 + Niort defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Niort scores more

42%

level

25%

RED Star FC 93 scores more

33%

Niort at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

F. J. Dembi

23'

B. Ecuele Manga↳ M. Zemzemi

48'

58'

62'

63'

69'

72'

T. Tormin← M. Zemzemi

72'

B. El Kaddouri← S. Cissé

72'

R. Anaba← N. Elphege

80'

B. Meyapya

89'

I. Botella← M. Ifnaoui

89'

J. Ikanga A Ngele← H. Benali

Niort

RED

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Hinschberger

72'▲T. Tormin←▼M. Zemzemi

72'▲B. El Kaddouri←▼S. Cissé

72'▲R. Anaba←▼N. Elphege

Niort substitutes

24Tormin20Kaddouri25Anaba40Mbeubap28Hassani

Manager: H. Beye

62'▲A. Anani←▼C. NDoye

63'▲D. Durand←▼K. Cissé

89'▲I. Botella←▼M. Ifnaoui

89'▲J. Ikanga A Ngele←▼H. Benali

RED Star FC 93 substitutes

27Anani7Durand17Botella23Ngele16Avognan

Match Recap: Niort vs RED Star FC 93

Niort and RED Star FC 93 drew 1-1 in League #63 on November 6, 2023.

Goals: B. Ecuele Manga (23'), A. Anani (69').

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs RED Star FC 93 — League #63 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Niort vs RED Star FC 93