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RED Star FC 93 vs Le Havre — Ligue 2 2025

RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Le Havre
Le Havre
8/27/2016Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Jean-Bouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

RED Star FC 9325%
×Draw29%
Le Havre46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RED Star FC 93
0.85
Le Havre
1.25

Le Havre creates 47% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 8 away

creates per match

RED Star FC 93
1.21
Le Havre
1.25

allows per match

RED Star FC 93
1.25
Le Havre
0.50

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par
Le Havre+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Le Havre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw
54%
RED Star FC 93 or Le Havre
71%
Draw or Le Havre
75%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
8%
Le Havre wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
57%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
21%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
5%
Le Havre 1+ goals
71%
Le Havre 2+ goals
36%
Le Havre 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
36%
Le Havre (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Le Havre away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.21 + Le Havre defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Le Havre attack 1.25 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more
25%
level
29%
Le Havre scores more
46%

Le Havre at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Le Havre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
Cédric Cambon
56'
T. Keita← I. Mhirsi
56'
G. Gimbert← D. Louiserre
75'
M. Dembélé← M. Duhamel
79'
J. Hergault← H. Bouazza
80'
Pierrick Cros
83'
L. Gamboa← I. Chebake
89'
A. Sané← A. Ngamukol

Possession

49%RED

Shots

9RED

Statistics

REDLe
Overview
49%Possession51%
9Total Shots6
0Corners8
8Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots6
4On Target2
5Off Target4
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: RED Star FC 93 vs Le Havre

RED Star FC 93 and Le Havre drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on August 27, 2016.

Le Havre controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Jean-Bouin in Paris.