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Red Lions vs Silver Strikers — Super League 2026

Red Lions
Red Lions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Silver Strikers
Silver Strikers
8/13/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Balaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Red Lions26%
×Draw32%
Silver Strikers42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Lions
0.79
Silver Strikers
1.08

Silver Strikers creates 37% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 84 away

creates per match

Red Lions
0.88
Silver Strikers
1.17

allows per match

Red Lions
1.00
Silver Strikers
0.70

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par
Silver Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Silver Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw
58%
Red Lions or Silver Strikers
68%
Draw or Silver Strikers
74%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+
8%
Silver Strikers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals
55%
Red Lions 2+ goals
19%
Red Lions 3+ goals
5%
Silver Strikers 1+ goals
66%
Silver Strikers 2+ goals
29%
Silver Strikers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)
39%
Silver Strikers (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Silver Strikers away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.70 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + Silver Strikers defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Silver Strikers attack 1.17 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Red Lions scores more
26%
level
32%
Silver Strikers scores more
42%

Silver Strikers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Silver Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Red Lions 1–0 Silver Strikers

Red Lions beat Silver Strikers 1-0 in Super League on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Balaka Stadium in Balaka.