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Red Lions vs Rumphi United — Super League 2026

Red Lions
Red Lions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rumphi United
Rumphi United
4/30/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Balaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Red Lions67%
×Draw20%
Rumphi United12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Lions
1.97
Rumphi United
0.70

Red Lions creates 181% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 15 away

creates per match

Red Lions
0.88
Rumphi United
0.40

allows per match

Red Lions
1.00
Rumphi United
3.07

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par
Rumphi United+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Rumphi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw
88%
Red Lions or Rumphi United
80%
Draw or Rumphi United
33%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+
42%
Rumphi United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals
86%
Red Lions 2+ goals
58%
Red Lions 3+ goals
31%
Rumphi United 1+ goals
50%
Rumphi United 2+ goals
16%
Rumphi United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)
84%
Rumphi United (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Rumphi United away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + Rumphi United defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 1.97

Rumphi United attack 0.40 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Red Lions scores more
67%
level
20%
Rumphi United scores more
12%

Red Lions at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Lions vs Rumphi United

Red Lions beat Rumphi United 1-0 in Super League on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Balaka Stadium in Balaka.