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Red Lions vs Mitundu Baptist — Super League 2026

Red Lions
Red Lions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mitundu Baptist
Mitundu Baptist
H. Kamunga 41'
5/23/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Red Lions43%
×Draw33%
Mitundu Baptist25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Lions
1.04
Mitundu Baptist
0.71

Red Lions creates 46% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 5 away

creates per match

Red Lions
0.89
Mitundu Baptist
0.40

allows per match

Red Lions
1.02
Mitundu Baptist
1.20

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par
Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Mitundu Baptist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw
75%
Red Lions or Mitundu Baptist
67%
Draw or Mitundu Baptist
57%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+
17%
Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals
65%
Red Lions 2+ goals
28%
Red Lions 3+ goals
9%
Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals
51%
Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals
16%
Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)
63%
Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Mitundu Baptist away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.89 + Mitundu Baptist defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Mitundu Baptist attack 0.40 + Red Lions defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Red Lions scores more
43%
level
33%
Mitundu Baptist scores more
25%

Red Lions at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
H. Kamunga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Red Lions 1–0 Mitundu Baptist

Red Lions beat Mitundu Baptist 1-0 in Super League on May 23, 2026.

Goals: H. Kamunga (41').